Clinton: How better weapons could bring about peace in the Middle East [

Clinton: How better weapons could bring about peace in the Middle East [!!]

Ezra Klein's Washington Post blog. 12/3/02

Speaking of Bill Clinton, here he is with a novel argument on the

prospects for peace in the Middle East: "I still think there is some

chance the Israelis and the Hamas government and the Palestinian

government could make a deal. Because I think that the long-term

trend lines are bad for both sides that have the capacity to make a

deal. Right now, Hamas is kind of discredited after the Gaza

operation, and yet [the Palestinian Authority] is clearly increasing

[its] capacity. They are in good shape right now, but if they are not

able to deliver sustained economic and political advances, that's not

good for them. The long-term trends for the Israelis are even more

stark, because they will soon enough not be a majority. Then they

will have to decide at that point whether they will continue to be a

democracy and no longer be a Jewish state, or continue to be a Jewish

state and no longer be a democracy. That's the great spur.

"The other thing that has not been sufficiently appreciated is the

inevitable arc of technological capacity that applies to military

weaponry, like it does to PCs and video games and everything else. I

know that these rockets drove the Israelis nuts, and I didn't blame

them for being angry and frustrated - it was maddening. But let's be

candid: They were not very accurate. So it's only a question of time

until they are de facto outfitted with GPS positioning systems. And

when that happens and the casualty rates start to really mount, will

that make it more difficult for the Palestinians to make peace

instead of less? Because they will be even more pressed by the

radical groups saying, "No, no, look, look, we are making eight out

of 10 hits. Let's stay at this." I think one of the surprising things

that might happen this year [2010] is you might get a substantial

agreement. Nobody believes this will happen, and it probably won't,

because of the political complexity of the Israeli government. But

all I can tell you is, I spent a lot of time when I was president

trying to make a distinction between the headlines and the trend

lines. If there was ever a place where studying the trend lines would

lead you to conclude that sooner is better than later for

deal-making, it would be there."

Photo credit: By Katie Barnes/Associated Press

By Ezra Klein | December 3, 2009; 5:02 PM ET |